The Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil facility contributed to an upward trajectory in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $85 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate reaching over $82 per barrel. This geopolitical event, along with expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, has supported higher oil prices.
ING analysts predict that the oil market will tighten in Q3 due to growing supply risks, including the rollover of voluntary supply cuts from OPEC+ into Q2 2024, Ukraine's recent attacks on Russia's refineries, and constant disruptions to oil flows through the Red Sea. They have revised their oil price forecast from US$80/bbl to US$87/bbl for the second quarter and from US$82/bbl to US$88/bbl for the third quarter.
Crude oil inventories declined by 2.5 million barrels in the latest report for the week ending June 14, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This decrease follows a build of 2.7 million barrels in the previous week and signals a tightening market6.