S&P 500 returns 15% in the first half in an unusually smooth ride

The S&P 500's year-to-date return by June 2024 was 15%. This performance marked the 21st best run through June since 1900, and among years when the index was up at least that much at this point, the rest of the year was up 72% of the time for a median further gain of almost 9%.

The S&P 500 has risen after similar starts historically in 72% of the cases when it was up at least 15% at this point in the year. The median further gain in such cases was almost 9%.